Writing from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia -- In the afternoon, hundreds of reporters assemble in the ground floor ballroom of the Sama-Sama Hotel in Kuala Lumpur and listen attentively while the various men investigating the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 repeat that they are investigating all possibilities.
When asked to expound on those potential scenarios, the definition of "all" really gets quite narrow. Those in front of the cameras and those behind them are totally focused on a crime; a hijacking, a deliberate act.
This is based on several findings. Various electronic communication methods ceased as the plane was leaving Malaysian airspace less than an hour into its six hour flight to Beijing. The pilot acknowledged a hand-off to Vietnam air traffic control but never radioed in. The plane made a sharp turn off its flight plan to the west and then began to fly erratically. Seven hours and 31 minutes after takeoff, the last hourly signal from the plane to the Inmarsat satellite network was received. Otherwise there was total silence from the crew on board flight 370. The world has been looking for the Boeing 777 ever since.
Investigators seem to think only a deliberate act could be responsible for break-off of data from the plane's ACAR system and the radio transponder. Only someone at the controls could explain the left turn, the steep ascent and erratic course out to the west. Maybe they're right.
But I can't help but think that there are other scenarios and I'm not alone.
Several years ago I wrote a lengthy article about hypoxia based on the Payne Stewart and the Helios Airways Flight 522 crashes. In those events, an slow depletion of oxygen disabled the crews and the planes flew on for hours until fuel gone, they crashed, killing everyone on board. (Go ahead, read the full story here.) I'm not suggesting hypoxia is the issue here, though an experienced 777 captain and air safety investigator who did not want me to use his name, suggests it is possible.
"What has been described as an erratic flight profile captured by military radar, would better describe the actions of a non-pilot attempting to control the plane, or even a partially incapacitated pilot, or no pilot at all," he told me. "This opens up scenarios to me that could include electrical fire, causing loss of some systems (transponder, ACARS) and incapacitation of the pilots due to smoke, fumes or fire. A bomb could cause structural damage that might result in loss of systems and incapacitation of pilots."
I understand that the evidence gleaned from the data streamed off the airplane and then the unexpected absence of data looks awfully suspicious. Intentional action is not far fetched, except for the fact that nine days of intense media scrutiny hasn't turned up even a hint that either of the pilots, Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah and Fariq Abdul Hamid were interested in anything out of the ordinary for pilots; motor bikes, music, (women in the case of Fariq) and flying. Zaharie, even built a home-made flight simulator since 18 thousand hours in the air just wasn't enough for him.
Further at the news briefing today, the transportation minister Hishamuddin Hussein said the cockpit crew did not ask to fly together on flight 370 and fuel loaded on board was standard for the route, KL to Beijing. Two more reasons a rogue crew theory seems unlikely.
Considering his experience, the 52-year old Zaharie probably wasn't a bad enough pilot to be at the controls of the errant flight 370. In fact, two pilot acquaintances suggest to me that it is possible no one was.
"The 777 could, in theory, fly quite far even without an autopilot engaged and with no one in control. The controls are moved by flight computers which provide some degree of stability even when the autopilot is not engaged. It has automatic bank angle protection that would prevent it from banking steeply and entering the steep spiral that ends most uncontrolled flights. Loss of electric or damage to this computer system could remove some of this stability. The aircraft might meander in the sky repeatedly climbing and descending until it ran out of fuel."
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| 9Y-MRO at LAX photo courtesy Jay Davis |
"Most airplanes are dynamically stable, when they are disrupted from their flight path they return," another former 777 pilot told me. "If the airplane was no longer in an altitude hold the airplane will climb until it loses a little speed, then it will descend. As it descends it picks up speed." Changing winds might cause the the airplane track to change, the plane would roam in the sky.
These theories sound more credible so at the risk of having readers remind of this if I turn out to be wrong, I'm going to weigh in with the pilot and his "no-pilot" theory. Like everyone else watching and waiting and jawboning about this disturbing episode, I can't fathom how that happened. But neither can I join the growing chorus convinced this mystery is an intentional act.